McKercher Corporation published a forecast on 21 January 2026 that residential solar panel pricing in Australia could rise by approximately 15 to 20 per cent across Q1 and Q2 2026. This page preserves that forecast as a dated market record.
Current-guidance boundary: The forecast period has passed. This article does not state current prices and does not establish that the forecast occurred. Current purchasing decisions require written prices, stock confirmation and site-specific assessment.
Basis recorded at publication
The January assessment considered several reported factors:
- removal of Chinese VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products from 1 April 2026
- reported increases and volatility in silver and other manufacturing inputs
- possible changes in upstream production and product availability
- Australian dollar movements against supplier currencies
- freight, insurance and inventory finance costs
- demand from other markets competing for manufacturing and shipping capacity
The cited articles support the existence of several conditions considered in the assessment. They do not independently establish a 15 to 20 per cent Australian residential price movement.
Forecast, not outcome
The forecast percentage was McKercher Corporation's assessment. No retained market-wide Australian residential panel price series, supplier basket or completed outcome review shows what movement ultimately occurred across Q1 and Q2 2026.
The original article also described possible effects on a fixed project budget, including reduced system size, a narrower equipment choice or less capacity for optional equipment. Those were scenarios rather than measured outcomes. They should not be applied to a current proposal without current prices and a documented design.
Current decision boundary
Price movements do not determine whether a particular solar system is suitable. A current decision should distinguish:
- the written system price and period for which it remains valid
- the exact equipment and confirmed availability
- design, connection and approval requirements
- installation scope, warranty terms and aftercare
- expected performance based on the property rather than a market forecast
The WA solar and battery compliance centre organises controlled technical and regulatory context. PSW Energy and Perth Solar Warehouse are the McKercher group operating businesses for site-specific solar and battery enquiries. The original record also linked directly to the PSW Energy website (opens in a new tab) and Perth Solar Warehouse website (opens in a new tab); those URLs are retained without implying current prices or availability.
References retained with the article
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Shaw, V. (2026, January 9). China to abolish solar export tax rebates in April (opens in a new tab). PV Magazine.
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Jowett, P. (2025, December 29). Silver hits record high of $83.62 an ounce (opens in a new tab). PV Magazine.
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Bu, S. and Woo, R. (2026, January 9). China to scrap export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products (opens in a new tab). Reuters.
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Bellini, E. (2026, January 13). Solar module prices lagging behind soaring silver costs (opens in a new tab). PV Magazine.
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Chen, X. and Jackson, L. (2025, September 17). China threatens to shut down polysilicon plants if new energy standards cannot be met (opens in a new tab). Reuters.
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UNCTAD document retained from the original freight discussion (opens in a new tab). The migrated record did not preserve a page reference connecting this document to the forecast.
Review status
This article was reviewed on 9 August 2026. No primary Chinese policy instrument, Australian wholesale price series or completed forecast assessment was retained with the migrated record. The editorial standards explain how dated market commentary and source limitations are handled.
